Newsig · Forex News
The smallest hiking cycle the Fed has ever done is 137 basis points
Welcome to the new rate-hike cycle.The FOMC delivered on the market's expectation for a rate hike yesterday and moved the Fed funds range to 3.75-4.00% from 3.50-3.75%. A hawkish Q&A from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh left the market thinking there's an even chance of a second hike in October but there a
Why it matters
TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: Fed rate hike directly impacts long-duration Treasury yields and prices Market context: bearish — a hawkish rate hike cycle pressures long-duration bond prices lower
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: Hawkish Fed rate hike and guidance affects equity valuations broadly Market context: bearish — higher rates and tighter policy weigh on risk assets
VIX (VIX Volatility) · Why linked: Hawkish Fed surprises and policy uncertainty elevate market volatility Market context: bullish — increased uncertainty around rate path tends to push volatility higher
How TLT, SPY usually react
This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.
| Asset | Events | Avg max move | Closed lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | 9 | +0.62% | 67% |
| SPY | 10 | +0.67% | 70% |
Curated by Newsig — News in. Signal out.
How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy