Newsig · CoinDesk
Fed raises rates by 25 basis points in first hike since July 2023
The widely expected move places the U.S. Federal Reserve's benchmark fed funds rate range at 3.75%-4.0%.
Why it matters
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: A Fed rate hike is a systemic monetary policy event that directly impacts equity valuations. Market context: Bearish in the short term as higher rates compress valuations, though 'widely expected' status may limit the shock.
DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: Rate hikes typically strengthen the dollar by widening rate differentials. Market context: Bullish as higher U.S. rates attract capital inflows into dollar-denominated assets.
TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: Long-duration treasuries are most sensitive to rate hikes, with prices falling as yields rise. Market context: Bearish as the 25bp hike and elevated rate range push long-end yields higher.
QQQ (Invesco QQQ) · Why linked: Growth/tech stocks are highly rate-sensitive due to their long-duration cash flows. Market context: Bearish as higher discount rates weigh most on growth stock valuations.
How SPY, TLT, QQQ usually react
This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.
| Asset | Events | Avg max move | Closed lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 10 | +0.67% | 70% |
| TLT | 9 | +0.62% | 67% |
| QQQ | 3 | +1.28% | 67% |
Curated by Newsig — News in. Signal out.
How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy