Newsig · Forex News
Fed dot plot backs hawks as Warsh tone rattles markets more than the hike
With the 25bp hike itself fully priced, the market's reaction Wednesday centred on the 10 year Treasury yield's push back above 5%, a level Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth flagged as the more important signal than the rate decision. A hawkish dot plot alongside Warsh's tougher press conference tone rei
Why it matters
TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: 10-year Treasury yield pushed back above 5%, directly impacting long-duration bonds Market context: Bearish as yields surge above critical 5% level on hawkish Fed dot plot
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: Hawkish Fed tone and rising yields are weighing on equity markets broadly Market context: Bearish pressure from higher discount rates and policy uncertainty
DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: Hawkish Fed signals strengthen the dollar relative to other currencies Market context: Bullish as Fed maintains hawkish posture vs other central banks
QQQ (Invesco QQQ) · Why linked: Tech-heavy Nasdaq particularly sensitive to rate hikes and higher yields Market context: Bearish as growth stocks face valuation pressure from rising rates
How TLT, SPY, QQQ usually react
This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.
| Asset | Events | Avg max move | Closed lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | 9 | +0.62% | 67% |
| SPY | 10 | +0.67% | 70% |
| QQQ | 3 | +1.28% | 67% |
Curated by Newsig — News in. Signal out.
How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy