Newsig · Forex News
ICYMI: Goldman pushes next Fed hike to December, sees strong chance no more hikes are needed
Goldman's shift reinforces the rally at the short end of the Treasury curve, where 2-year yields posted their biggest one-day fall in more than a year on Thursday, and takes some support away from the US dollar. Oil is the main risk to the call: with Brent back above $100 on China's fuel export halt
Why it matters
TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: Goldman's updated Fed path affects Treasury yields across the curve, particularly the long end Market context: Long-dated Treasury prices may rise as the terminal rate outlook shifts lower
SHY (1-3 Year Treasury) · Why linked: Short-end yields fell sharply on the news, directly benefiting 2-year exposure Market context: Short-end Treasury prices rise as the market prices in a higher probability of no further hikes
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: A more dovish Fed path reduces the discount rate on equities and supports risk assets Market context: Equities may benefit from reduced expected policy tightening
DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: Pushing rate hikes further out or removing them entirely tends to weigh on the dollar Market context: The dollar may weaken as the rate differential with other economies narrows
How TLT, SPY usually react
This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.
| Asset | Events | Avg max move | Closed lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | 14 | +0.66% | 71% |
| SPY | 16 | +0.70% | 69% |
Curated by Newsig — News in. Signal out.
How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy