Newsig · CNBC
The Fed's main inflation measure will be released Wednesday. Here's what to expect
Data is expected to show ongoing price pressures and consumers who nevertheless continue to spend.
Why it matters
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: The Fed's preferred inflation gauge directly drives equity valuations and risk sentiment. Market context: Sticky inflation with continued spending supports equities but could keep the Fed hawkish.
DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: PCE inflation is a key input for Fed policy and dollar direction. Market context: Hotter PCE reinforces hawkish Fed stance and supports the dollar.
TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: PCE outcomes shift long-end yield expectations significantly. Market context: Persistent inflation pressure could push yields higher and weigh on long-duration Treasuries.
How SPY, TLT usually react
This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.
| Asset | Events | Avg max move | Closed lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 15 | +0.71% | 67% |
| TLT | 13 | +0.65% | 69% |
Curated by Newsig — News in. Signal out.
How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy