Newsig · Forex News
New York Fed inflation expectations: One year inflation expectations hit the highest since 2023
The New York Fed survey of consumer expectationsOne year inflation 3.9% vs 3.6% priorThree year inflation 3.3% vs 3.2% priorFive year inflation unchanged at %3%Year-ahead expected spending rose to the highest since May 2023Labor market expectations were mostly positiveThe Fed won't be happy abo
Why it matters
TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: Rising inflation expectations typically pressure long-duration Treasury prices and push yields higher. Market context: Higher inflation expectations are likely to weigh on long-duration Treasury prices as yields adjust upward.
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: Sticky inflation expectations influence Fed rate path expectations and overall risk asset valuations. Market context: Elevated inflation expectations may pressure equity multiples if they shift Fed cut expectations.
DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: Higher U.S. inflation expectations can affect rate differentials and dollar positioning. Market context: Rising inflation expectations could lift the dollar if they delay Fed easing.
How TLT, SPY usually react
This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.
| Asset | Events | Avg max move | Closed lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | 19 | +0.71% | 58% |
| SPY | 18 | +0.72% | 61% |
Curated by Newsig — News in. Signal out.
How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy