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BoJ's Ueda in focus as markets weigh a back-to-back October rate hike

Summary:Ueda addresses the National Securities Convention in Tokyo on Tuesday, his first major remarks since the September hike to 1.25%.2.35pm Tokyo time / 0635 GMT / 0235 US Eastern time Markets see an October hike as the less likely outcome, with one estimate near one in four.July minutes sh

Why it matters

USD/JPY (US Dollar / Japanese Yen) · Why linked: BoJ rate hike expectations directly impact yen carry trade and USD/JPY direction. Market context: A hawkish Ueda signaling a back-to-back October hike would strengthen the yen and pressure USD/JPY lower.

EWJ (Japan ETF) · Why linked: Higher BoJ rates affect Japanese equity valuations and financial sector profitability. Market context: A more hawkish BoJ stance could weigh on Japanese equities in the near term while benefiting banks.

How EWJ usually react

This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.

AssetEventsAvg max moveClosed lower
EWJ6+1.03%33%

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