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US treasury sells $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 4.932%

The first leg of the 3 coupon auctions this week including the 3 year, 10 year and 30 year is complete. SummaryWI level at the time of the auction: 4.934%High yield: 4.932%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.934%Stop-through: 0.2 basis points vs the average stop-through of 0.3 basis pointsBid to

Why it matters

TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: A $58B 3-year Treasury auction with a high yield of 4.932% directly reflects US Treasury market pricing and demand. Market context: The 3-year note auction priced slightly below the WI level at 4.932%, signaling solid demand for short-duration Treasuries.

SHY (1-3 Year Treasury) · Why linked: The auction specifically covers 3-year notes, making short-duration Treasury ETFs directly relevant. Market context: Solid auction demand for 3-year notes supports short-duration Treasury prices and reinforces expectations of stable front-end yields.

DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: Treasury auction results influence dollar pricing via yield curves and global demand for US debt. Market context: A well-received Treasury auction tends to support the US dollar by reinforcing foreign demand for dollar-denominated debt.

How TLT usually react

This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.

AssetEventsAvg max moveClosed lower
TLT18+0.72%61%

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