Week ahead: US inflation and retail sales lead a busy economic calendar. Be aware.

Why it matters

SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: The US CPI report is a key inflation indicator that influences Federal Reserve policy and broad equity valuations. Market context: A hot CPI print could pressure equities by reducing rate-cut expectations, while a soft print could boost risk assets.

TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: Treasury yields react directly to inflation surprises and Fed policy expectations. Market context: Hot inflation would push yields higher and weigh on long-duration Treasuries, while soft inflation would lift them.

DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: Dollar strength is highly sensitive to U.S. inflation data relative to other economies. Market context: A stronger-than-expected CPI would likely support the dollar, while a weaker print could weigh on it.

GBP/USD (British Pound / US Dollar) · Why linked: UK GDP is on the calendar and is a key driver of GBP movement against the dollar. Market context: UK GDP surprises can move the pound relative to the dollar depending on relative growth dynamics.