Newsig · Forex News
Weeeknd - Fed's Kashkari says inflation still too high across US economy, not just energy
Rate futures suggest markets still see a tightening Fed, with roughly a two-in-three chance that the policy rate ends 2026 at 4.00% to 4.25% and a strong likelihood of at least another quarter point by mid-2027. That should keep the US dollar supported and leaves rate-sensitive assets exposed, since
Why it matters
TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: Kashkari's hawkish inflation comments and the described rate path directly affect long-duration Treasury yields. Market context: Sticky inflation rhetoric from the Fed reinforces a higher-for-longer rate path, weighing on long-duration Treasury prices.
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: Hawkish Fed commentary tends to pressure risk assets by raising discount rates and tightening financial conditions. Market context: Persistent inflation concerns from a Fed official increase the odds of further tightening, creating a headwind for equities.
DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: A tighter Fed relative to expectations typically supports the dollar through higher rate differentials. Market context: Reduced odds of near-term Fed cuts following Kashkari's remarks tend to support the dollar.
How TLT, SPY usually react
This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.
| Asset | Events | Avg max move | Closed lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | 10 | +0.57% | 60% |
| SPY | 10 | +0.67% | 70% |
Curated by Newsig — News in. Signal out.
How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy