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Treasury yields at 5% threaten extending Bitcoin’s best quarter since 2017

Weak US jobs data has narrowed expectations for another Fed hike in October, offering Bitcoin some relief as investors continue to embrace the debasement trade.

Why it matters

BTC (Bitcoin) · Why linked: The article directly discusses Bitcoin's price action and quarterly performance. Market context: Bitcoin faces pressure from 5% Treasury yields but is finding relief from dovish Fed expectations tied to weak jobs data.

TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: Treasury yields at 5% are the central macro driver discussed in the article. Market context: Sustained 5% Treasury yields are pressuring risk assets while reflecting sticky long-end rates.

SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: Macro backdrop of yields and Fed expectations affects broad equity risk appetite. Market context: High yields and shifting Fed hike expectations are shaping overall equity market sentiment.

DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: Dollar strength is closely tied to Treasury yields and Fed policy expectations. Market context: Dollar is being influenced by the interplay between 5% yields and easing Fed hike odds.

How BTC, TLT, SPY usually react

This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.

AssetEventsAvg max moveClosed lower
BTC5+1.75%40%
TLT17+0.73%59%
SPY18+0.72%61%

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How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy