Newsig · Forex News
Preview: September non-farm payrolls by the numbers
What's expected:Consensus estimate +910K (range +35K to +180K)August +162KJuly +21KPrivate consensus estimate +85KUnemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.1% vs 4.1% priorParticipation rate 61.6% priorPrior underemployment U6 prior 7.7%Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.2% y/y vs +3.1% priorAvg hourly ea
Why it matters
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: Non-farm payrolls is the most closely watched US labor market data and moves the broad equity market. Market context: A payrolls print near the +910K consensus would significantly influence Fed rate-cut expectations and overall equity direction.
DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: Labor market data directly affects dollar positioning via Fed policy expectations. Market context: A stronger-than-expected payrolls number would support the dollar, while a miss would weaken it.
TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: Treasury yields react sharply to payroll surprises as they reshape the rate path. Market context: Hot payrolls would likely push long-end yields higher and pressure TLT, while a weak print would lift it.
How SPY, TLT usually react
This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.
| Asset | Events | Avg max move | Closed lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 16 | +0.70% | 69% |
| TLT | 14 | +0.66% | 71% |
Curated by Newsig — News in. Signal out.
How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy