Newsig · Forex News
US September non-farm payrolls +29K vs +90K expected
Prior was +162K (revised to +133K)Two-month net revision -60KUnemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.1% expectedPrior unemployment rate 4.1%Unrounded unemployment vs 4.1413% priorParticipation rate 61.8% vs 61.6% priorU6 underemployment rate 7.6% vs 7.7% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% exp
Why it matters
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: A major miss on non-farm payrolls with rising unemployment is a systemic macro shock affecting broad equity indices. Market context: Weaker-than-expected jobs growth and rising unemployment heighten expectations for Fed rate cuts, boosting equities in the short term.
DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: A softening labor market weakens the dollar as rate cut expectations rise. Market context: Softer labor market data weakens the dollar against major peers.
TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: Weakening labor data supports lower yields and bond price appreciation. Market context: Weaker payrolls push Treasury yields lower, lifting long-duration bond prices.
How SPY, TLT usually react
This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.
| Asset | Events | Avg max move | Closed lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 16 | +0.70% | 69% |
| TLT | 14 | +0.66% | 71% |
Curated by Newsig — News in. Signal out.
How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy