Newsig · Forex News
US September CPI 3.7% vs 3.6% expected
Prior was 3.4%Unrounded +3.738% vs +3.397% priorCPI m/m +0.6% vs expPrior CPI was +0.4%Unrounded CPI m/m vs +0.396% priorCore readings:Core y/y 2.6% vs expectedPrior core was 2.4%Core unrounded +2.564% y/y vs +2.446% priorCore m/m +0.3% vs expectedPrior m/m +0.3%Unrounded m/m vs +0.318% priorCore go
Why it matters
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: A hot CPI print directly impacts Fed rate path expectations and broad equity valuations. Market context: An upside surprise in both headline and core CPI typically pressures equities as rate-cut odds are repriced lower.
TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: Hot inflation data alters the trajectory of long-term yields and Fed policy expectations. Market context: Sticky inflation generally weighs on long-duration Treasuries as terminal rates are pushed higher.
DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: Higher-than-expected CPI strengthens the dollar by reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. Market context: An inflation upside surprise is typically dollar-supportive as the Fed is expected to stay hawkish.
CL (Crude Oil (WTI)) · Why linked: Rising headline CPI driven partly by energy prices links directly to crude benchmarks. Market context: Energy-driven inflation components can reinforce oil price strength on expectations of tighter monetary policy.
How SPY, TLT, CL usually react
This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.
| Asset | Events | Avg max move | Closed lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 19 | +0.70% | 63% |
| TLT | 20 | +0.74% | 60% |
| CL | 180 | +2.93% | 41% |
Curated by Newsig — News in. Signal out.
How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy