Newsig · Forex News
US September ISM manufacturing 54.5 vs 55.0 expected
Prior reading was 54.6New orders 55.3 vs 53.7 priorEmployment 52.7 vs 51.2 priorPrices paid 77.9 vs 72.3 expectedPrior prices paid 71.1The prices paid number is grabbing the market's reaction in the immediate aftermath of the report as it soared. US 30-year yields are at the highs of the day,
Why it matters
TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: Strong ISM prices paid reading signals sticky inflation, impacting Treasury yields Market context: Higher-than-expected prices paid reading could pressure Treasuries as inflation expectations rise, lifting yields.
DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: Hot inflation data supports the dollar via Fed rate path expectations Market context: Rising prices paid strengthens the dollar by reducing odds of aggressive rate cuts.
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: Broad equity benchmark sensitive to inflation and rate expectations Market context: Hot inflation print could weigh on equities by raising discount rates and tightening financial conditions.
CL (Crude Oil (WTI)) · Why linked: Prices paid subcomponent often captures commodity inflation sentiment Market context: Higher input prices signal strengthens bargaining energy commodities and raises commodities by signaling robust economic demand.
How TLT, SPY, CL usually react
This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.
| Asset | Events | Avg max move | Closed lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | 14 | +0.66% | 71% |
| SPY | 16 | +0.70% | 69% |
| CL | 136 | +3.13% | 40% |
Curated by Newsig — News in. Signal out.
How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy