Newsig · Forex News
US July core PCE 3.0% y/y vs 3.3% expected
Prior was 3.3%Headline y/y % vs 3.7% expected (3.7% prior)Headline m/m +% vs +0.4% expected (+0.2% prior)Core PCE (excluding food & energy):Core m/m +% vs +0.3% expectedPrior +0.2%Consumer spending and income for August:Personal income % vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.4%Personal spending % vs +0.
Why it matters
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge; a 30 bps miss versus expectations is highly market-moving. Market context: Cooler-than-expected core PCE reinforces dovish Fed expectations, supporting equities.
TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: Lower core inflation reduces long-end yields and lifts bond prices. Market context: A downside surprise in core PCE is bullish for long-duration Treasuries.
DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: Softer inflation reduces the urgency of hawkish Fed policy. Market context: Weaker inflation prints typically pressure the dollar.
GC=F (Gold Futures) · Why linked: Lower real yields and reduced rate-hike probability are supportive of gold. Market context: Easier Fed outlook is bullish for gold as a non-yielding asset.
How SPY, TLT, GC=F usually react
This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.
| Asset | Events | Avg max move | Closed lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 15 | +0.71% | 67% |
| TLT | 13 | +0.65% | 69% |
| GC=F | 3 | +1.27% | 67% |
Curated by Newsig — News in. Signal out.
How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy