Newsig · Forex News
US retails sales for September 0.8% MoM vs 0.3% estimate. Prior month 1.3%
Prior 1.3%DetailsRetail sales MoM: +0.8% vs +0.3% expected. Prior revised to +1.2% from +1.1%.Retail sales excluding autos MoM: +0.9% vs +0.5% expected. Prior revised to +1.4% from +1.3%.Retail sales excluding gasoline and autos MoM: +0.2%. Prior revised to +1.2% from +1.1%.Retail control group MoM:
Why it matters
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: US retail sales are a major consumer-spending indicator that drives broad equity sentiment and growth expectations. Market context: A stronger-than-expected 0.8% MoM retail sales print signals robust consumer demand, supporting the soft-landing thesis and boosting equities.
TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: Hotter-than-expected retail sales can influence inflation expectations and Treasury yields. Market context: Stronger consumer spending may reduce rate-cut bets, pushing yields higher and weighing on long-duration Treasuries.
DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: Robust US consumer data supports the dollar via reduced near-term rate-cut expectations. Market context: Strong retail sales likely lift the dollar by firming Fed policy expectations.
How SPY, TLT usually react
This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.
| Asset | Events | Avg max move | Closed lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 19 | +0.70% | 63% |
| TLT | 22 | +0.81% | 55% |
Curated by Newsig — News in. Signal out.
How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy