Newsig · CNBC
Three words from Kevin Warsh have Wall Street wondering how far the Fed will go with rate hikes
The chairman both explained this week's decision to raise interest rates, and raised vexing questions about what comes next
Why it matters
TLT (20+ Year Treasury) · Why linked: Hawkish Fed rate hike signals directly affect long-duration Treasury prices and yields. Market context: A more hawkish Fed tone tends to push Treasury yields higher and weigh on long-duration bond prices.
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) · Why linked: Rate hike expectations and forward guidance impact broad equity valuations. Market context: Hawkish Fed commentary on further hikes typically pressures equity multiples across the S&P 500.
DXY (US Dollar Index) · Why linked: Hawkish Fed signaling strengthens the dollar relative to other major currencies. Market context: Expectations of sustained or additional rate hikes tend to support the U.S. dollar.
How TLT, SPY usually react
This story is too recent for its own reaction record — we score each asset against the actual price move 24h after publication. These are the long-run figures across every event we have tracked for them.
| Asset | Events | Avg max move | Closed lower |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | 9 | +0.62% | 67% |
| SPY | 10 | +0.67% | 70% |
Curated by Newsig — News in. Signal out.
How the reaction data is measured · Editorial policy